Sunday, 5 of February of 2012

Want to see your future? Observe actively!

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I conduct workshops focused on critical and strategic thinking and my definition of “strategic thinking” is pretty simple — think well about the future. And to get people to consider the future I ask them about their mental radar screen. Visualize a radar screen and consider three zones.

In the middle of your radar screen is your Reaction Zone. This is the mix of all the usual stuff (mostly out of your control) that consumes your day (like meetings, e-mail, customer complaints, etc.) It’s the stuff that hits you and you and to which you have to react. In today’s economy, a lot of people are spending all of their time in the Reaction Zone thinking about current problems.

Go out a bit further on your mental radar screen and you come to the Adaptation Zone. What you see here (if you look) is stuff that you had better do something about before it becomes a problem.  It’s usually pretty clear and you have some time, so don’t waste it. For example, as the economy turns around (as it always has) how will you sell to a more “discriminating” buyer? Or how will you appeal to the Y-generation and their heightened social consciousness?

Finally, look at the edge of the radar screen and look into the Anticipation Zone. What are the clues you see that portend a new future for you or your organization? This stuff is NOT clear and requires a bit a squinting to see a possible new future. Think about a hospital and the Anticipation Zone. What does personal medical records + Internet + reduced insurance benefits equal? I see both the incentive and the capability to “shop for value” becoming BIG. What do you see?

OK, here’s the bottom line. We have to look at the whole radar screen often. We have to react AND adapt AND anticipate if we are to succeed. This goes for businesses and for individuals.

What’s on your radar screen and what are you doing about it? Most importantly, do you pay attention to the edge?


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kenNo Gravatar

in April 19th, 2009 @ 16:25

Bill, I am consumed by the “Reaction Zone.” I spend most of my time there. There are times when I look into the “Adaption Zone.” These usually are prompted by reading an article like this or a customer suggestion that makes me think as opposed to just reacting.

But, for me to enter the “Anticipation Zone”, I must leave the computer. I can still use pen and paper to think long term. What will the future of Adgitize look like? Nothing like a long walk in nature to allow clear thinking without our normal distractions.

I can’t begin to count the number of times I was involved in an off topic conversation with friends when something someone has said generated a spark.

I remember a few years back reading a book about creativity. In it the author talked about putting different constructs together to see what you can make with it. Look at your desk right now. I have a laptop, camera and a phone on it.

It wasn’t that long ago when these were three separate entities. Now with an iPhone you can call, surf the internet and take pictures. Hmmmm. What am I looking at now that might be tomorrow’s time saver?

Thanks for the distraction and opportunity to enter the Anticipation Zone!

ken’s last blog post..Time to Get to the Gym


Bill WelterNo Gravatar

in April 20th, 2009 @ 11:36

Ken,
Time spent in the Anticiaption Zone is almosts always well spent. The problem at many businesses is that this time doesn’t always “look” like work. We tend to put off quiet deliberation and replace it with visual activity. So …. go take a walk and feel good about it.
Bill


Fred H SchlegelNo Gravatar

in April 22nd, 2009 @ 17:34

Bill, I like this analogy. So often strategic planning ends up in dusty three ring binders that get pulled out once a year to satisfy the calendar rather than guide a business. Make strategy part of ‘radar thinking’ and it reminds you to keep eyes on the adaption and anticipation zones even while dealing with emergencies.

Keeping up with disruptive technology in the genetics area is a constant concern on my end. Since it takes time for new techniques to be broken in it’s very hard to figure when to pull the lever on serious capital expenditures that keep you cutting edge. Too soon and the investment sits there because it’s not reliable enough or acceptable enough. Too late and you’re waiting in line while your customers go elsewhere.

Fred H Schlegel’s last blog post..Physics and Ideation: When Does A Breakthrough Idea Become An Acceptable Idea?


Bill WelterNo Gravatar

in April 22nd, 2009 @ 21:30

The issue of disruptive technology is fascinating. When you look at it from an historical point of view it seems so darned obvious. But when you see it on the edge of the radar screen it is so hard to judge its speed. I’ve just started reading Christensen’s new book about health care (Innovation Prescription); do you have any opinion about his view? Bill


Kay PlantesNo Gravatar

in April 27th, 2009 @ 08:33

Great advice Bill. Scenario-based planning is a great tool for helping leaders bring all three zones into their thinking. You create different screen plays of the future based on known and unknown factors. An example of known: US Demographic Trends. An example of unknown: How quickly personalized medicine will emerge. Whether your organization is looking at specific decision or is rethinking its business model, scenario-based conversations pull leaders from the narrow to full-radar screen thinking that you recommend.

Kay Plantes’s last blog post..Strategic Leadership in Fearful Times


Fred H SchlegelNo Gravatar

in April 27th, 2009 @ 10:07

@ Bill I haven’t had the chance to look at Christensen’s book yet. He usually has great insight. Will be interested to hear what you think.

Fred H Schlegel’s last blog post..Physics and Ideation: Creativity and Mismatched Socks


Bill WelterNo Gravatar

in April 27th, 2009 @ 11:52

Kay,
I like your term “scenario based conversations.” This seems an easier and more ad hoc way of keeping a conversation going. Sometimes scenario planning sessions get too formal and, therefore, slow.
Bill


Bill WelterNo Gravatar

in April 27th, 2009 @ 11:54

Fred,
So far so good with Innovator’s Prescription. Kay and I have discussed his view of business models and will have some things to add. Stay tuned.
Bill