Comments on: Uncertainty and Reasoned Risk http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/index.php/uncertainty-and-reasoned-risk We Help Managers Make a Difference Sat, 19 Nov 2011 21:26:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: When Thinking Out Of The Box, You Might Want To Think In The Box | Uncertainty Paradox Series | Frog Blog http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/index.php/uncertainty-and-reasoned-risk/comment-page-1#comment-466 When Thinking Out Of The Box, You Might Want To Think In The Box | Uncertainty Paradox Series | Frog Blog Tue, 25 Aug 2009 12:19:28 +0000 http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/?p=163#comment-466 [...] Bill Welter’s Adaptive Strategies blog? and his discussion of “Uncertainty and Reasoned .... [...] [...] Bill Welter’s Adaptive Strategies blog? and his discussion of “Uncertainty and Reasoned …. [...]

]]> By: Fred H Schlegel http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/index.php/uncertainty-and-reasoned-risk/comment-page-1#comment-465 Fred H Schlegel Tue, 25 Aug 2009 02:21:37 +0000 http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/?p=163#comment-465 Pairing the term reasoned with risk is interesting. Reminds me of a story I heard about why the idea of boat excursions was actually working out to the casinos advantage here in Illinois. Seems that folks would change their gambling behavior during the last five or ten minutes of the session thinking they needed to 'make up the losses' or 'take advantage of a winning streak.' Net result was that those last ten minutes were the most profitable for the boats. Making sure your not being unduly rushed might make sense. .-= Fred H Schlegel´s last blog ..<a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/frogblog/yTub/~3/RfLLu2Dm6Zs/" rel="nofollow">Defining The Definition Of Brand</a> =-. Pairing the term reasoned with risk is interesting. Reminds me of a story I heard about why the idea of boat excursions was actually working out to the casinos advantage here in Illinois. Seems that folks would change their gambling behavior during the last five or ten minutes of the session thinking they needed to ‘make up the losses’ or ‘take advantage of a winning streak.’ Net result was that those last ten minutes were the most profitable for the boats. Making sure your not being unduly rushed might make sense.
.-= Fred H Schlegel´s last blog ..Defining The Definition Of Brand =-.

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]]> By: Bill Welter http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/index.php/uncertainty-and-reasoned-risk/comment-page-1#comment-461 Bill Welter Fri, 21 Aug 2009 13:31:07 +0000 http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/?p=163#comment-461 Brad, Agreed! this goes well along with the "think in ranges" and adds action items to both ends o fthe range. Bill Brad,
Agreed! this goes well along with the “think in ranges” and adds action items to both ends o fthe range.
Bill

]]> By: Brad Shorr http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/index.php/uncertainty-and-reasoned-risk/comment-page-1#comment-460 Brad Shorr Fri, 21 Aug 2009 13:02:10 +0000 http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/?p=163#comment-460 Bill, those are some pretty good suggestions. How does this sound as an addition - Develop contingency plans. I was having a conversation with a client and this came up. The company was debating whether to introduce an amortization program for equipment, in order to make machinery available to firms with low or no capital budgets. The feeling was, maybe it's too late, maybe the recovery is already here. But, maybe not. Why not develop a set of financing options now, well in advance? Be ready to go with a financing program that works in an up cycle and another one that works in a down cycle. No matter what happens in the economy, you have the right offer. Viola! No more uncertainty angst. .-= Brad Shorr´s last blog ..<a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/WordSellInc/~3/i25Oqm8GuIE/" rel="nofollow">The Google Chrome Browser Diet</a> =-. Bill, those are some pretty good suggestions. How does this sound as an addition -

Develop contingency plans.

I was having a conversation with a client and this came up. The company was debating whether to introduce an amortization program for equipment, in order to make machinery available to firms with low or no capital budgets. The feeling was, maybe it’s too late, maybe the recovery is already here.

But, maybe not. Why not develop a set of financing options now, well in advance? Be ready to go with a financing program that works in an up cycle and another one that works in a down cycle. No matter what happens in the economy, you have the right offer. Viola! No more uncertainty angst.
.-= Brad Shorr´s last blog ..The Google Chrome Browser Diet =-.

]]> By: Bill Welter http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/index.php/uncertainty-and-reasoned-risk/comment-page-1#comment-457 Bill Welter Thu, 20 Aug 2009 21:16:12 +0000 http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/?p=163#comment-457 Ken, Great addition to the list. Thanks. By the way, this ties the fourth item on Curtis' list -- "Prepare to be wrong." Bill Ken,
Great addition to the list. Thanks.
By the way, this ties the fourth item on Curtis’ list — “Prepare to be wrong.”
Bill

]]> By: Ken http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/index.php/uncertainty-and-reasoned-risk/comment-page-1#comment-456 Ken Thu, 20 Aug 2009 20:57:14 +0000 http://www.adaptstrat.com/blog/?p=163#comment-456 As I was reading this Bill, I was thinking, "a reasoned risk means there is a chance of being successful, but also a chance of failure." As you contemplate a reasoned risk have you thought of an exit strategy? Nobody wants to fail, but if things turn bad what can you do to limit your losses? All those people who bought homes with the expectation to throw some money and sweat equity and then sell the homes at a profit 3 to 6 months later, did they have an exit strategy? What if the improvements cost more than they could afford? What if the market tanked? (It did.) What if their contractors walked out after doing a horrible job? What's your exit strategy? Should it be included as you contemplate a risk of a new product, opportunity, employee, consultant or service? As I was reading this Bill, I was thinking, “a reasoned risk means there is a chance of being successful, but also a chance of failure.” As you contemplate a reasoned risk have you thought of an exit strategy? Nobody wants to fail, but if things turn bad what can you do to limit your losses?

All those people who bought homes with the expectation to throw some money and sweat equity and then sell the homes at a profit 3 to 6 months later, did they have an exit strategy? What if the improvements cost more than they could afford? What if the market tanked? (It did.) What if their contractors walked out after doing a horrible job?

What’s your exit strategy? Should it be included as you contemplate a risk of a new product, opportunity, employee, consultant or service?

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