Adaptive Strategies Blog

The July-August issue of The Futurist has a nice article entitled “Ten Things to Know about Tomorrow’s Businesses.” (see www.wfs.org) All of the items are individually familiar; yet when they are brought together they give you the opportunity to ponder combinations. For example, “The emergence of China as the World’s Largest Economic Power” is not surprising. Nor is “Energy and Water Shortages.” However, together they can create scenarios ranging from “water wars” to phenomenal new infrastructure innovations.

I was intrigued by the article and tried to write a list of ten forces driving my future. First of all, it was very hard. Second, it was sobering when I thought of some of the combinations. (It’s a good thing that I live within walking distance of essential stores and the library.) Third, it was exciting. (I wonder what it will be like to deliver workshops from my home studio? I hate getting on airplanes.)

Try to create a list of ten things you know about the forces driving your future. Now consider the combinations. Now get ready.

The title of this post is from the March 23 & 30, 2009 issue of Business Week — and I love the message. So much has changed that “the game” is permanently changed — and that is a GOOD thing.

“Big ideas” happen when people and organizations finally decide to do something to take advantage of tough times. When times are good we fall into the trap of active inertia — we keep doing what we’ve been doing. When times are tough we are forced to think differently or become irrelevant. And NOTHING should be more embarassing to you or your business than to become irrelevant to your customers or your team members.

In the coming years we will look back and be amazed at some of the innovations that will come out of the current crisis. Face it, the current crisis will result in some people and organizations that will be labeled as winners — it might as well be you. What can you do to take advantage of this situation?

We are in times of deep uncertainty and people wonder about how to do planning during uncertain times. All you know for sure is that your strategy needs to adapt. What to do? Maybe it would help to do a bit of role playing. I’ll add a new white paper to my website by mid-week, but here’s a few role-playing tips to consider while you wait.

• Play the general and conduct war games with your best people. What do you want to accomplish and how will the terrain (economy) and the enemy (competition) react to your moves? What can you do to react to their moves?
• Play the coach and watch game films. Study your entire industry and see what they are doing. What can you learn from their successes and mistakes.
• Play the project planner and consider the elements of risk you are facing and what mitigating moves you can make and what contingengy plans you need to put in place.

I have nine more tips for you and will have them posted on my “publications” tab by mid-week. Download them if you want them (free — no e-mail address required).

But here’s the question for you. Who do you role play when you think about dealing with uncertain times?

I’m working on a new book project that is based on applying Louis Pasteur’s quote of “chance favors the prepared mind” to the realm of hospitals and other healthcare providers. And one of the stumbling blocks has been answering the general question of how does anyone prepare for an unknown future. So I sat down and wrote whatever came into my mind.

Here is my initial list. I’d appreciate additions that you might make to this draft. “We prepare for the future when we …..”

• go to school
• learn something new
• practice
• watch game films
• play war games
• build scenarios
• focus on goals
• do contingency planning
• conduct rick assessment
• ask questions
• send probes into the unknown
• “get in shape”
• experiment
• study failures

What would to add to my list? I REALLY want to know! (It will help me break a writers-block that’s driving me nuts!)