I just finished reading an article from the July-August issue of Harvard Business Review that I found  frightening and thought provoking. The article is about Global Competitiveness — but the sub-title is what caught my eye — WHY AMERICA CAN’T MAKE A KINDLE. Although the Kindle was designed in California, the important components are made in China, Taiwan, and South Korea and the entire unit is assembled in China. Consider the major components:

• The battery comes from China  — When America outsourced laptop computers to Asia we gave up on battery technology
• The display comes from Taiwan — We no longer have the expertise because we gave up flat panel LCD manufacturing to Asia.
• The wireless card is made in Korea — the Korean mobile phone industry is more advanced than ours, so the latest advances in wireless technolgy come from there.
• The injection-molded case comes from China — We don’t have much of this capability left inasmuch as we have outsourced most toys, consumer electronics, and computers to Asia.

We have focused on the short-term and “shareholder value” for the past fifteen years or so. But we have neglected to consider the long term sustainability of our manufacturing base. We have deluded ourselves into thinking that we can be a service economy (What !? Selling sub-prime mortgages to one another?) and that only we have “imagination” for the next great thing. I think that both of these assumptions are frightfully weak.

Frankly, I don’t know what to suggest except to say that all of us need to worry about our knowledge base and our collective willingness to mortgage our future for “every day low prices.” That said, there are NO short-term solutions. We need to rebuild our expertise so that we have the competitive advantage here at home to make some of the things we want to buy.

What do you think? Am I being a crabby old man and too narrow-minded or am I right to be worried about our future?

The July-August issue of The Futurist has a nice article entitled “Ten Things to Know about Tomorrow’s Businesses.” (see www.wfs.org) All of the items are individually familiar; yet when they are brought together they give you the opportunity to ponder combinations. For example, “The emergence of China as the World’s Largest Economic Power” is not surprising. Nor is “Energy and Water Shortages.” However, together they can create scenarios ranging from “water wars” to phenomenal new infrastructure innovations.

I was intrigued by the article and tried to write a list of ten forces driving my future. First of all, it was very hard. Second, it was sobering when I thought of some of the combinations. (It’s a good thing that I live within walking distance of essential stores and the library.) Third, it was exciting. (I wonder what it will be like to deliver workshops from my home studio? I hate getting on airplanes.)

Try to create a list of ten things you know about the forces driving your future. Now consider the combinations. Now get ready.

One of the basic steps behind having a prepared mind is spending time thinking about the future. That is unless you want to wait for the future to come and smack you in the face — then you get to simply react to a future that others have created. So, assuming you want some say in how your future will evolve, you need to spend a bit of time in “proactive reflection.” Here are six things you might try.

1. Think about the larger system because the answer to the question “Why?” is found there. Why do you have to improve quality? Look to the changes being made in your industry. Why do you have to worry about innovation? Look to the expectations of your customers? Dont look in; look out. How is the larger system changing and how will it affect you?
2. Think about your business model because all of us have customers (internal or external) who have expectations of us. Our total offering consists of the services we provide, the relationship we have with them, the way we communicate with them, and the promises we make.  How are your customers changing and what will you have to change to keep them satisfied?
3. Think about the speed of industry evolution and get ready to adapt your strategy. Move too fast and you may have a fad on your hands. (Think about the dot-com bubble of 1999) Move too slowly and you will become irrelevant. (Do we still need Sears?) Most industries are evolving faster. Are you keeping up?
4. Think across the spectrum of time. Can you (do you) learn from the past? (Does human nature change?) Do you look at current technologies and say “They won’t affect me.” (Did the original “car phones” worry the telephone companies?) Do you ever sit back and daydream about the future of your industry? You should.
5. Think about the things you can influence or change. You can be a victim of the system or you can try and influence for the betterment of the system. This past presidential campaign saw the power of lots of people trying to influence the future of this country. Wouldn’t it be cool if you were interested enough in the success of your business to try and influence it?
6. Think critically. Everyone can express an opinion. Precious few can back up their opinions with good thinking. Will today’s assumptions play out in the future? What are the intended and unintended consequences of today’s actions on the future of your organization? Who will be your customers in ten years? Are you communicating with them now or do you expect them magically find you in ten years?

What tools, tricks, and techniques do you use to think about the future? Please reply — curious minds want to know.