Tuesday, 7 of September of 2010

Prepared Mind — 6 ways to think about the future

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One of the basic steps behind having a prepared mind is spending time thinking about the future. That is unless you want to wait for the future to come and smack you in the face — then you get to simply react to a future that others have created. So, assuming you want some say in how your future will evolve, you need to spend a bit of time in “proactive reflection.” Here are six things you might try.

  1. Think about the larger system because the answer to the question “Why?” is found there. Why do you have to improve quality? Look to the changes being made in your industry. Why do you have to worry about innovation? Look to the expectations of your customers? Dont look in; look out. How is the larger system changing and how will it affect you?
  2. Think about your business model because all of us have customers (internal or external) who have expectations of us. Our total offering consists of the services we provide, the relationship we have with them, the way we communicate with them, and the promises we make.  How are your customers changing and what will you have to change to keep them satisfied?
  3. Think about the speed of industry evolution and get ready to adapt your strategy. Move too fast and you may have a fad on your hands. (Think about the dot-com bubble of 1999) Move too slowly and you will become irrelevant. (Do we still need Sears?) Most industries are evolving faster. Are you keeping up?
  4. Think across the spectrum of time. Can you (do you) learn from the past? (Does human nature change?) Do you look at current technologies and say “They won’t affect me.” (Did the original “car phones” worry the telephone companies?) Do you ever sit back and daydream about the future of your industry? You should.
  5. Think about the things you can influence or change. You can be a victim of the system or you can try and influence for the betterment of the system. This past presidential campaign saw the power of lots of people trying to influence the future of this country. Wouldn’t it be cool if you were interested enough in the success of your business to try and influence it?
  6. Think critically. Everyone can express an opinion. Precious few can back up their opinions with good thinking. Will today’s assumptions play out in the future? What are the intended and unintended consequences of today’s actions on the future of your organization? Who will be your customers in ten years? Are you communicating with them now or do you expect them magically find you in ten years?

What tools, tricks, and techniques do you use to think about the future? Please reply — curious minds want to know.


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Fred H SchlegelNo Gravatar

in April 27th, 2009 @ 11:05

Lot to think about here Bill. I like that you encourage a wide spectrum of thought, instead of focusing on ‘one right way.’ One exercise I have used is kind of negative, but it can expose some elephants in the room. Asking, “What are you most afraid of?” often delivers answers that are focused on the present, but taken to their logical extreme can expose some of the business model and industry evolution changes you speak of.

Fred H Schlegel’s last blog post..Physics and Ideation: Creativity and Mismatched Socks


Bill WelterNo Gravatar

in April 27th, 2009 @ 11:47

Fred,
I like it and will add it to my tool kit. Thanks.
Bill


Brad ShorrNo Gravatar

in April 27th, 2009 @ 14:19

Hi Bill, Your post makes it clear how truly difficult it is to think about the future – I would suppose that for a large organization, it is necessary to consider things from each of these six perspectives. A daunting task! I’ve always found it helpful to brainstorm with one or two other people where there is lots and lots of creative chemistry – people who feel completely comfortable sharing even the craziest ideas, people who can play off any “what if” scenario and come up with an even more exciting one. When the chemistry is good, an agenda may not even be necessary (yet always helpful). When chemistry is bad, no agenda or process gets me very far.

Brad Shorr’s last blog post..News and Thank You’s


Bill WelterNo Gravatar

in April 27th, 2009 @ 15:23

Brad,
Agreed. Chemistry makes a big difference and having great thinking partners makes it easier to see the future.
Bill