Adaptive Strategies Blog

More about the eight skills of the Prepared Mind.

In the past two weeks I’ve touched on the skills of Challenging and Observing. Here’s another skill you need to consider – the skill of deciding

Why do you get paid? Let me be blunt – if it’s not because you have responsibility for making or influencing decisions at your organization, then your job is in big trouble.

It’s easy to outsource “transaction stuff” (“Why yes, I’ll be happy to take your order for …”) and it’s even easy to outsource important “knowledge stuff” (Was your recent x-ray read by a radiologist in your hospital or in another country?) However, decisions and decision making stays close to home – this act of management is too important to outsource (that said, has your organization outsourced key decisions to your local band of consultants? But that’s another story.).

Get it? You want to be in a position that accepts the risk (and rewards) of decision making.

So where does the concept of having a Prepared Mind come into play? Well, there are plenty of books that delve into the mechanics and processes of good decision making. They are important, but not enough. If you are going to be prepared for your future, and make good decisions that will bring your organization into the future, you need to consider (as Peter Drucker put it many years ago) the “futurity of present decisions.” In other words, you need to think about the intended and unintended consequences of today’s decisions. Want a couple of examples? Try these:

• DDT (easier to say than dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) was the very first modern pesticide and was widely used in crop protection and for the eradication of malaria-bearing mosquitoes in the 1940s and 1950s. The Swiss inventor was even awarded the Nobel Prize “for his discovery of the high efficiency of DDT as a contact poison against several arthropods.” Unfortunately DDT has toxic side effects and caused the death of fish and birds, so it was banned in many countries in the 1970s. Unfortunately, the banning lead to a resurgence of malaria in many tropical countries by the end of the 20th century. Was the widespread use of DDT a good decision? Was the wholesale banning of DDT a good decision? There may have been a better middle ground if scientists and politicians had looked into the future.
• Let’s look at today’s dire circumstances with “new” General Motors and consider just one of the many sets of decisions that brought the old GM to today’s condition. The relationships between management and the UAW have been rocky for a long time and both parties “bought peace” through contract language that provided unsustainable benefits for laid-off and retired workers. Unlike the DDT story, where the decision-makers may not have fully understood the science and biology involved, the long term impact of the contract language with GM and the UAW could have been seen by any good actuary and could have predicted the conditions facing both parties today. (Hmmm, did they?) Maybe the executives thirty  years ago knew fully well that they were laying the groundwork for a future problem. They just knew it wouldn’t happen on their watch.

So what do these simple stories have to do with you and your ability to make decisions? First, be careful when you’re dealing with situations that are novel and have yet-to-be-understood consequences. Go back to the skill of Observing and put a system in place to actively watch for early warning signs and be prepared to alter your decision.  Second, “run the numbers” well into the future for decisions that have quantifiable consequences and then use the skill of Challenging to test all assumptions. (Who knows, maybe GM execs in years past thought they made good decisions? It may be that their assumptions were overly optimistic.)  

Where have you seen organizations neglect to consider “the futurity of present decisions” and what have been the (unintended) consequences.

Last week I posted a comment about the Prepared Mind skill of Challenging. This week it’s about the need to improve our skill of Observing.

We admire those who are prepared for their future and wonder about those who plead “surprise” or try the tabloid defense of “I didn’t know.” Ignorance may be a defense in court – but what does that say about the person? Isn’t it the job of leaders to pay attention? Isn’t that something that’s required of all of us who are trying to get ahead in the era of accelerating change?

In the old days of the Soviet/American Cold War, the military recognized that getting surprised by Soviet bombers was not a good thing (to put it mildly) so we constructed the DEW (distant early warning) Line of radar sites along the northern horizon. The intent was to see danger as early as possible. Likewise, no one, not the CEO or the new data entry clerk, should be in the position of being surprised.

However, we don’t have the time or the bandwidth to notice everything. You can’t pay attention to everything!

So, one question you should ponder is that of “What worries you?”

We built the DEW Line because we were worried about the Soviets. We watch our cholesterol because we’re worried about heart disease. We watch “leading indicators” because we worry about the economy. So what should trigger your attention if it hits the edge of your mental radar screen?

What else should be on your “to be observed” checklist?

Well, think about all of the assumptions that are the foundation of our personal and business plans. Assumptions are great mental shortcuts; but they tend to degrade without warning. What assumptions did GM use until they found themselves in bankruptcy court?

You may assume that you and your department are valuable and necessary to the running of the organization in which you work. And, therefore, you maintain the status quo; just doing your job day-in and day-out. However, the current trend of outsourcing, sending knowledge jobs to China or India, should awaken you to observe specific trends in your industry. The bottom line is that you need to consider which of your assumptions are most important to your longevity and future success. Bring them into the open and watch them.

OK, so we need to observe those things that might put us at risk. How about the proverbial “flip side” of the coin? Where does opportunity lie? What was it that Toyota saw in 1993 that caused them to start the process that created the Prius hybrid? Why design, engineer and build a hybrid car when there was absolutely NO mass market? Simply put, Toyota saw the convergence of rising oil prices, and a rising world middle-class economy, and a citizenry concern for ecology. There was no market data to prove them right – only thinking driven by edge-of-the-screen observation.

Where are the opportunities waiting for your observations? And how do you prepare yourself to take advantage of them?

Ask yourself this question: “What can’t be done today that, if it could, would change your career or your company for the better?”

Can you see people in other disciplines, or companies, or industries that have already addressed your “impossibility?” You won’t know until you look and you won’t look until you decide to really observe the world around you.

You see, it all starts with intention. You won’t see the edge of your mental radar screen until you take the time to look.

Tell me what you see.

I have been fascinated with the quote attributed to the French biologist, Louis Pasteur, that “chance favors a prepared mind.” Consequently I wrote a book in 2006 with Jeanie Egmon from Northwestern University that focused on the skills (eight in all) we saw in leaders who were prepared for the future. (Go to www.PreparedLeader.com for an overview of the book and our thoughts behind it.) Anyway, given the level of uncertainty I see across the economy, I decided to return t that theme for a number of posts about getting ready for the future.

Here’s the challenge: Are you ready for the challenges and opportunities in your path from today to tomorrow?

Let me start with comments about the prepared mind skill of challenge.

We are pretty comfortable at challenging others’ thoughts and decisions. We’re sure that many authority figures (bosses, coaches, legislators, generals, etc.) are intellectual wimps and that we could do their job better than they. Sometimes we’re right. However, we’re often judging based on our biases, not our own ability to think well.

Everyone has opinions; are your opinions build on a solid foundation?How can you assess your ability to think and, consequently, challenge yourself to improve?

Try using Benjamin Bloom’s levels of cognitive ability. (Bloom was a U of C professor who studied thought processes that are used in learning. Google him to learn more.)

Bloom concluded that there are six levels of thought. Moving from the lowest to the highest they are: knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis, and evaluation. At what level is your thinking? What underpins your opinions? Try the following example and then create some of your own.

Most of us know that General Motors is in a world of hurt, so let’s use their problem to understand the levels of thinking and to test our thinking.

• Knowledge – can you recall specific information? What are the products and services provided by GM? What nameplates have been eliminated? Which remain?
• Comprehension – can you state a problem in your own words? What is the major problem faced by GM and its unions as it emerges from bankruptcy?  
• Application – can you apply concepts to the “real world?” How has the labor contract trapped both parties? How does this apply to your workplace?
• Analysis – can you distinguish between facts and inferences? How is the  situation at Ford different from the situation at GM?
• Synthesis – can you put the parts together to form a whole, with emphasis on proposing alternative solutions? Can you design an organizational structure and new “social contract” that is agreeable to both management and unions at the new GM?
• Evaluation – can you judge and evaluate actions and outcomes based on a defined set of criteria? Maybe you love the government’s approach? Maybe you hate it. Here’s the tough question: What would you do to “fix” GM?

Maybe it was unfair to test your thinking about GM? What if I asked a similar set of questions about the war in Afghanistan? (Many of us hate it; but do we understand it?) What about your company’s strategy? (Why think about it? I’m sure “they” have everything under control.)  And then there are your views of our health care system. (“I’m sure it’s broken, but they need to fix it without raising taxes. It’s not my problem”) Hmmmm.

I now challenge all of us to move up the scale of Bloom’s levels of thought. We have plenty of knowledge and most of us are pretty good at comprehension. However, if my view of the world is representative of reality, we are sorely lacking in the widespread capability of the higher levels of this taxonomy.

The world of sound bites and “factoids” is a sterile world when it comes to good examples of the skills needed to synthesize and evaluate. What do you see? Are you worried?

When I decided to add a blog to my website I tried to be real about how often I could enter a new post. I decided that a good weekly post should suffice to keep me active with clients and others. As you can see by my recent posts, they have slipped beyond the once-per-week schedule I set for myself.

Thinking, reading and writing are fun, but since I need to pay my bills I also conduct workshops on Critical and Strategic Thinking. And in the course of conducting each workshop I always talk about the need to actually schedule time to think and reflect. My pitch is that “If you don’t schedule it, time will slip away and you will miss the opportunity.”

Hmmm, it seems that I need to actually schedule writing a weekly post. Otherwise the opportunity will slip away. (As it has.)

That’s my confession and my resolution.

What’s important in your life that you say you’ll accomplish “one of these days?” Will it happen if you don’t schedule it? Think about it.

The July-August issue of The Futurist has a nice article entitled “Ten Things to Know about Tomorrow’s Businesses.” (see www.wfs.org) All of the items are individually familiar; yet when they are brought together they give you the opportunity to ponder combinations. For example, “The emergence of China as the World’s Largest Economic Power” is not surprising. Nor is “Energy and Water Shortages.” However, together they can create scenarios ranging from “water wars” to phenomenal new infrastructure innovations.

I was intrigued by the article and tried to write a list of ten forces driving my future. First of all, it was very hard. Second, it was sobering when I thought of some of the combinations. (It’s a good thing that I live within walking distance of essential stores and the library.) Third, it was exciting. (I wonder what it will be like to deliver workshops from my home studio? I hate getting on airplanes.)

Try to create a list of ten things you know about the forces driving your future. Now consider the combinations. Now get ready.