For the past six years I have been conducting workshops on “critical and strategic thinking” for some of the better corporations in America. And in these workshops I cover the key attributes of critical thinking. Two of them seem to be lacking in the congressional “debates” we see played out in the news.

First, an aspect of critical thinking (or just plain good thinking) is the willingness to look at a situation from multiple points of view.  Every time I hear that congress “voted along party lines” I realize that the people who are deciding things that affect my future have abdicated their responsibility to think! This is “groupthink” at its best/worst. If all we need is a tally of party votes, we should fire all of our senators and representatives (and save a TON of money) and let a clerk tally the votes.

Second, good thinkers realize that complex problems (like healthcare, like the national debt, like the wars) do not have known or even knowable solutions – they require experimentation to discover possible part-solutions that can be combined to find a reasonable total solution. As long as both parties see this as a win-lose situation they will never undertake the bold experiments that are needed to find real solutions. They are unwilling (as seen by their actions) to risk their party reputation for the good of the country. Sorry, but that seems gutless to me.

What do you think?

Yes, I was MIA for while (but you probably didn’t notice). Time really is a scare commodity.

Anyway, I’ve been thinking about all the men and women who “get it done” in most businesses – the “middle” managers.

Picture this, it’s a holiday party and you and all the guests are eagerly awaiting the dinner bell. You strike up a conversation with your cousin TJ, the Director of Operations for a large firm. TJ has enjoyed a fairly successful 20+ year career with this employer since starting in the management training program. TJ is smart and hard-working and has moved up the ranks, gaining greater responsibility and recognition, surviving the “right sizing” of the early 21^st century and currently holds a very visible, high-pressure role. It has always been interesting to hear about TJ’s career journey because it sounds so exciting and rewarding.

But this year things are a bit different. TJ seems less enthusiastic, distracted, and even appears exhausted. You notice that TJ’s career adventure has become simply a job. “It’s just not like it used to be,” TJ explained. “Business is changing so much and it seems to me as if the rules of the game are changing. The pressures are mounting and my job is harder than ever before.”

The Rules are Changing

TJ’s situation is not that unusual for many middle managers. The rules of the game are changing and those changes come from all around us: expanded responsibilities because of globalization and a virtual workforce, advancements in technology and the use of the internet resulting in a 24×7 reality, mobility of the workforce, changing employee expectations as Boomers exit and Gen Y enters the workforce, expanding consumer power because of excess global capacity, and the constant pressure to maintain costs and improve profitability for our shareholders.

Each of these changes or trends has resulted in a marketplace that looks very different from what the previous generation of middle managers saw. The situation is further complicated by the reality that these changes are all happening concurrently.

What are your TJ’s experiencing and what can you do about it? I have some ideas and will comment later.

Sooner or later, congress is going to pass legislation affecting your industry. Right now it’s all about health care, but sooner or later your environment is going to change, no matter what your industry. When that happens, managers at all levels will be faced with decisions that have to be made in response. What are some of the attributes of “better” decisions?

Heres’ my list. Please add to it.

The decision makers:

• Consider the “futurity” of their decision. That is, they consider long term implications as well as the short term.
• Address the real issue (This may sound strange, but ask any consultant about being asked to solve a problem that was not the real problem.)
• Consider multiple points of view (their POV is only one of many.)
• Actively consider the risk involved with the decision.
• Understand ALL of the criteria that will be used to make the decision.
• Consider the ability of the organization to execute the decision.
• Expose and vet the assumptions underlying the issue and decision.
• include emotional and cultural realities in their deliberation.
• Are willing to consider the “cons” as well as the “pros” of their favorite option. 

Many of you are already good at making decisions. What would make you better? What should I add to my list?

Who is your role model? Or, more importantly, who are your role models in these uncertain times?

Wow, just think back to the good old days (the roaring 90s) when all we had to do was pick up another book about Jack Welch and apply “the GE way” to all of our problems.

Who now? Who can we use when things are so uncertain?

How about great explorers? Try Roald Amundsen. He was the Norwegian explorer who was the first to reach the South Pole on December 14, 1911. There was a lot of uncertainty about the terrain and the conditions he and his team would face. So he focused on some things that remained true and important no matter what – weight and warmth. For example, while waiting for the “good” weather he spent time shaving down the sleds and wooden boxes to get them as light as possible. He also spent time tending the sled dogs who would carry him to the pole. Think about your business. What DO you know during these uncertain times? You obviously know you have to keep costs under control. Do you also know that you will need new and better talent? Should you get rid of people to reduce costs or should you take this “downtime” to improve the capabilities of your team? Think like an explorer.

How about great detectives from our fictional past, the heroes of our who-done-its. We’ve all read about Sherlock Holmes but I prefer to think a bit more recent and consider the fictional Nero Wolfe. No action hero here – he’s big and fat. But he certainly sees the clues that others miss and comes up with unique ways to solve the crime. What are the clues that you need to connect to make some sense out of uncertainty? What scenarios could you construct and put into mental competition as you plan for the future. Think like a detective.

How about great scientists? Thomas Edison had great drive and a willingness to experiment and, most importantly, to use failures to rebuild and rerun experiments. He failed in the quest for a light bulb thousands of times as he dealt with uncertain properties of materials and how they would react with electric current. He also thought BIG – the light bulb was part of the electric system he had conceived. Scientists take it for granted that experimentation and failure are part of their daily life. Too many business people hold off until they are sure something is going to work. Maybe you should think like a scientist?

So, here are some of my role models during uncertain times. Who do you look to for guidance and inspiration?

Our friend Brad Shorr (Brad Shorr) came up with an interesting idea a couple of weeks ago. Let three bloggers riff on the same topic for a while and see what happens. We picked a topic near and dear to all of your hearts (and wallets) – BUSINESS UNCERTAINTY.

Kay Plantes knows a LOT about business model innovation. How does she see uncertainty?

Fred Schlegel has a marketing mindset. What opportunities does he see in uncertainty?

Finally, I spend a lot of client time thinking about the skills of emerging leaders. Why might uncertainty be good for them?

Assumption:Knowledge Ratio

I recently read an article in Sloan Management Review that had a very interesting ratio to consider — the ratio of assumptions to knowledge. In other words, how much are we assuming about our business compared to how much do we know about our business. Fractions are good; whole numbers are bad.

My guess is that during the 1990s the ratio was certainly smaller than today. There’s no way to know what it was for your leadership team, but suffice it to say that the ratio is larger today. During times of uncertainty we know less and assume more. And therein lies the problem. So many of today’s leaders spent their formative years in relatively benign times. But now they have to make their most important decisions in times of relatively higher uncertainty. What should they do?

Robustness

They (and you) should spend some time thinking about the concept of “robustness” and how it applies to leadership style.

Any system (like business) is said to be robust if it is capable of coping well with variations in its operating environment with minimal loss of functionality. So, be honest and ask yourself if the coming months and years are going to have more or less variation in sales trends, supplier demands, customer demands, regulations, interest rates, etc., etc.

My conclusion is that we will need more robust businesses in the coming few years and leadership that understands how to build and maintain these businesses.

Not sure what to do or to recommend? Go back to your grammar school English class and recall the explanatory power of antonyms (opposites). What are the antonyms of “robust?” Try “flabby, frail, soft, or weak.” These are descriptors you do NOT want.

So what makes your business more robust? Here are some ideas. Please add to my list.

• (Really) empower your team. They get stronger when they make decisions.
• Resist downsizing to the point of fragility. Accept a bit of inefficiency as a shock absorber.
• Increase training and development activities rather than cut the training budget. You want the best talent possible, not the most demoralized.
• Let go of your ego and listen to your suppliers’ ideas. You want them as a real partner, not one in name only.

Leadership in uncertain times is different. Face the brutal fact that you need your team’s help every bit as much as they need you. Try something dramatic – ask for it.

My friend Brad Shorr (Brad Shorr) came up with an interesting idea a couple of weeks ago. Let three bloggers riff on the same topic for a while and see what happens. We picked a topic near and dear to all of your hearts (and wallets) – BUSINESS UNCERTAINTY.

Kay Plantes knows a LOT about business model innovation. How does she see uncertainty?

Fred Schlegel has a marketing mindset. What opportunities does he see in uncertainty?

Finally, I spend a lot of client time thinking about the skills of emerging leaders. Why might uncertainty be good for them?

Times are uncertain – what a great time to be a leader!

OK, the economy is in the dumper. Healthcare is up for grabs. Chinese manufacturers are taking over your industry. And your bank is cutting  your line of credit.

Bad?  Maybe.

Brutal facts? Absolutely!

So now what do you do? Well, dear friends, you do what leaders throughout time have done. You spend some time and think about some “no regrets” moves.  You spend some time and think about options you might “buy.” And you think about some possibilities of bold moves. The bottom line is that during uncertain times you stop acting out of habit and take the time to THINK! I have eight skills for you to develop to improve your leadership thinking skills. Here are four; the other four will come in a few days.

THINK about observing : You can clearly see the problems facing your organization; can you see the opportunities that comes along with the problems? If you and all of your competitors are facing the same decline in sales, can you see a new value promise? What clues are on the horizon that inform your thinking about the structure of your business model?

THINK about imagining: The heart of strategy is to “do things differently or to do different things” for competitive advantage. The key word is “different” and the key skill is imagining. All of us had great imaginations as a small child (remember how you could use a big cardboard box to make a “fort”?) but many of us have neglected that skill while we searched for the perfect answer. It’s time to get back in touch with that little kid in the back of your mind.

THINK about challenging: Does uncertainty seem especially frightening because some of your assumptions are failing? Maybe it’s time to challenge all of your strategic assumptions. What assumptions are you holding about customer loyalty? What assumptions are you holding about your profit model? Your competitors will challenge all of your assumptions – shouldn’t you?

THINK about reflecting: Do you take the time to sit back and consider you marketing message and business model during these uncertain times? Or are you too darn busy doing “something” because activity feels good. (Be honest, does thinking look like work in your organization? If you’re like many others, you opt to “look busy” rather than get caught in quiet contemplation.)

Four more leadership thinking skills to come in the next post. In the meantime, tell me how you see leaders using uncertainty to get ahead. Louis Pasteur, the famous French biologist, was once accused of being lucky. His response was that he was lucky – but he was prepared for it. Are you?

I have been fascinated with the quote attributed to the French biologist, Louis Pasteur, that “chance favors a prepared mind.” Consequently I wrote a book in 2006 with Jeanie Egmon from Northwestern University that focused on the skills (eight in all) we saw in leaders who were prepared for the future. (Go to www.PreparedLeader.com for an overview of the book and our thoughts behind it.) Anyway, given the level of uncertainty I see across the economy, I decided to return t that theme for a number of posts about getting ready for the future.

Here’s the challenge: Are you ready for the challenges and opportunities in your path from today to tomorrow?

Let me start with comments about the prepared mind skill of challenge.

We are pretty comfortable at challenging others’ thoughts and decisions. We’re sure that many authority figures (bosses, coaches, legislators, generals, etc.) are intellectual wimps and that we could do their job better than they. Sometimes we’re right. However, we’re often judging based on our biases, not our own ability to think well.

Everyone has opinions; are your opinions build on a solid foundation?How can you assess your ability to think and, consequently, challenge yourself to improve?

Try using Benjamin Bloom’s levels of cognitive ability. (Bloom was a U of C professor who studied thought processes that are used in learning. Google him to learn more.)

Bloom concluded that there are six levels of thought. Moving from the lowest to the highest they are: knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis, and evaluation. At what level is your thinking? What underpins your opinions? Try the following example and then create some of your own.

Most of us know that General Motors is in a world of hurt, so let’s use their problem to understand the levels of thinking and to test our thinking.

• Knowledge – can you recall specific information? What are the products and services provided by GM? What nameplates have been eliminated? Which remain?
• Comprehension – can you state a problem in your own words? What is the major problem faced by GM and its unions as it emerges from bankruptcy?  
• Application – can you apply concepts to the “real world?” How has the labor contract trapped both parties? How does this apply to your workplace?
• Analysis – can you distinguish between facts and inferences? How is the  situation at Ford different from the situation at GM?
• Synthesis – can you put the parts together to form a whole, with emphasis on proposing alternative solutions? Can you design an organizational structure and new “social contract” that is agreeable to both management and unions at the new GM?
• Evaluation – can you judge and evaluate actions and outcomes based on a defined set of criteria? Maybe you love the government’s approach? Maybe you hate it. Here’s the tough question: What would you do to “fix” GM?

Maybe it was unfair to test your thinking about GM? What if I asked a similar set of questions about the war in Afghanistan? (Many of us hate it; but do we understand it?) What about your company’s strategy? (Why think about it? I’m sure “they” have everything under control.)  And then there are your views of our health care system. (“I’m sure it’s broken, but they need to fix it without raising taxes. It’s not my problem”) Hmmmm.

I now challenge all of us to move up the scale of Bloom’s levels of thought. We have plenty of knowledge and most of us are pretty good at comprehension. However, if my view of the world is representative of reality, we are sorely lacking in the widespread capability of the higher levels of this taxonomy.

The world of sound bites and “factoids” is a sterile world when it comes to good examples of the skills needed to synthesize and evaluate. What do you see? Are you worried?

Today’s New York Times has an OpEd piece by Paul O’Neill (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/06/opinion/06oneill.html?th&emc=th) that made me sit back and think about looking at problems from multiple points of view. Many of the articles about our “broken” health care system lead off with a statistic about the incredible cost of the system (more than any other country in the world on a basis of percent of GDP) and then launch into expensive, big-picture solutions to consider. And everyone asks “Where will we get the money?”

O’Neill’s article was about the small-picture. Infections, medication errors, patient falls and other preventable problems add up to about a trillion dollars of annual “waste.” And the kicker is that we already know how to reduce every one of these without a massive new program! And here is the kicker in his article: “What policymakers tend to forget is that only the people who do the work can make this happen. Legislation can’t do it, regulation can’t do it, infection-control committees can’t do it, financial incentives and disincentives can’t do it. ….. Where it works, the common denominators are strong leadership and a committed work force.”

And for those of us with a bit of grey hair, this has the ring of déjà vu. When the U.S. auto industry was shocked by the quality of cars coming from the Japanese auto companies we were “shocked” to find out that it was not fancy automation and wiz-bang technology, it was leadership and a dedicated (and trained!) workforce that made the biggest difference.

I’m not saying that we don’t have to proceed with big, system-wide issues; but maybe the first place to start is to fix the problems we already know how to fix. And the solution can be found in the team we already have. But it will take real leadership and that will not to be found in a government program developed by people far removed from the real problems. Improving the health care system or any system often comes down to plain hard work.

Now go visit your boss and demand some real leadership.  The future of your organization is at stake.