Comments on: A Prepared Mind Decides

By: Bill Welter

Bill Welter — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 21:05:03 +0000

Fred,
Yep, we should stress test assumptions. However, humans seem to be hard-wired to grab short-term satisfaction. That said, organization leaders (in a moment of calm deliberation) should institute policies that major decisions should be accompanied by an “impact assessment” that looks out a few or more years.

By: Fred H Schlegel

Fred H Schlegel — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 02:03:11 +0000

Hi Bill, Figuring out future implications of complicated decisions is tough. And the more complicated I’m afraid the easier wishful thinking can goof up predictions. Having seen how some union employees have been treated (a few friend’s pensions got caught in the United bankruptcy) it seems the structure was designed in a way that the folks in charge should have known better, but I have to hope it wasn’t a pass the buck kind of deal. I’m wondering if the ‘open source’ construct could work within some of these issues to allow a wider array of affected parties to stress test assumptions involved in major decisions.
.-= Fred H Schlegel´s last blog ..The Power Of Familiar =-.

By: Bill Welter

Bill Welter — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 13:21:26 +0000

Brad,
Thanks for the comment and the example. Here’s another example. Look at the incredible success of Crocs (the ugly shoes). What is the uninteded consequence of creating a shoe that doesn’t wear out? No replacements.
Now that Crocs have saturated their market, they have found the land of “no more sales” and are on the verge of bankrupcy.

By: Brad Shorr

Brad Shorr — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 11:21:06 +0000

Bill, This is really good advice. Culturally, we seem to have embraced immediate gratification: when (a handful) of politicians warn of the burden large federal debt places on future generations, it goes in one ear and out the other. By and large, people don't seem concerned about their legacies until they are too old to affect them. Your post made me think of Krispy Kreme. As I recall, they got a whiff of success and expanded wildly, opening shops all over the place in the blink of an eye. The next thing that happened was the Atkins craze. While that specific occurrence may have been hard to predict, KK management ought to have foreseen dietary trends shifting to more healthful foods somewhere along the line. .-= Brad Shorr´s last blog ..Add Multimedia to Your Blog Quick and Easy with Apture =-.